The Texans signed a lot of free agents this offseason, and don't have a lot of holes. The best-case scenario also would require a lot of injuries in Buffalo otherwise, this dream still ends with the Jets getting just a wild card. Free-agent addition Carl Lawson plays up to his huge contract as one of the league's top edge rushers. Saleh's defensive scheme clicks immediately and covers up for the questions in the secondary. And there are still a lot of questions about the secondary, in particular where the starting cornerbacks are both young, lower-round picks (Bryce Hall and Bless Austin).īest-case scenario: Wilson plays well right out of the gate, finally turning around the long-struggling offense. But defenses in new schemes, all else being equal, tend to play a little bit worse than average. Yes, Robert Saleh is bringing a strong scheme with him that performed well in San Francisco. The Jets' defense projects better than the offense but our system sees less upside than other defenses with similar recent track records. The Jets have added some offensive talent, in particular wide receiver Corey Davis, but the boost in our projection system from those new players is not enough to counterbalance the value of a rookie quarterback and the Jets' poor recent performance overall. It's not just the passing game, as the Jets' running game also ranked in the bottom six for three straight years. We also look at their performance over the past three years and that has been dismal, ranking in the bottom four for three straight years. Since 2013, quarterbacks taken in the top half of the first round who played as rookies found their teams averaging 25th in offensive DVOA.īut the quarterback is just part of the projection for the Jets. However, top-drafted rookie quarterbacks often take time to develop or - as in the case of Sam Darnold, Wilson's predecessor - they don't develop at all. Obviously, Zach Wilson brings hope to Jets fans that the offense will finally turn things around. The Jets have our worst overall projection, in particular our worst offensive projection. Here are our projections for the top 10 picks of the 2022 NFL draft: 1. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 draft pick and turn it into a playoff season. There's a lot of year-to-year change in the NFL, and prognostication is difficult. Over the past three seasons, seven of the teams we projected to have top-10 draft picks instead ended up making the playoffs. If your favorite team is listed here, don't fret. The projections are created by forecasting a range of possibilities for each team's offense, defense and special teams based on numerous factors, including personnel changes, three-year performance, standard regression toward the mean and schedule strength. With the 2021 NFL draft in the rearview mirror, we wanted to go through the teams we currently have projected with the top 10 picks in the 2022 draft, and explain a little bit about those predictions. And while every fan wants to have hope for his or her favorite team going into a new season, that hope takes a bit of a hit if you see your team forecast with a top-10 draft pick. NFL, NFL Draft, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville JaguarsĪs soon as one NFL draft ends, we're all looking forward to the next.
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